Snowballing

Sorry, ridiculously long.

I probably shouldn't say anything, so: Trigger warning: some data analysis, it isn't rosy, maybe you don't want to read this, but I am fielding dozens of questions a day about the covid situation, people seem very confused, there is a deluge of conflicting information out there and it seems not a lot of clear official guidance.

At the peak of Israel's first outbreak we had around 800 new infections a day. Cases now are nudging past 1000 a day and are widespread throughout the country rather than concentrated in limited clusters of hotspots.

If the current trend of exponential growth continues as it is without new mitigation measures it looks as though we will be seeing 2000 a day quite soon.

Keeping the economy open is important. People's mental health is important. For these reasons it seems unlikely there will be a lockdown even as numbers of infections increase and seem to by growing out of control.

Even without lockdown though 1000s of new infections each week, let alone each day, is going to cause disruption, in education, childcare, day camps, workplaces, heatlh care, and yes, our already battered tourism industry.
Aside from those actually testing positive, there is of course also yoyo quarantining.

Israel seems to be going for the Swedish model right now (if they are going for any model) and possibly some attempt at herd immunity. Now maybe this is a reasonable strategy to try, but in doing so one must be aware of the dangers of going down this road and prepare the public to face the challenges. I'm concerned that people aren't being prepared for what this approach might mean.

Hospitalisations and critical cases are gradually increasing as more older and at risk populations become infected and simply because there is a lag time between when people become ill and when some cases become serious in significant numbers. Numbers are still thank God low by the standards of big outbreaks like in the UK, Italy or US, but they are growing.

Remember there is a lag time between diagnosis and when and if people develop more serious symptoms, so we are only now seeing serious cases in people infected weeks ago, the has veshalom more serious cases of the growing numbers diagnosed more recently are still ahead of us.

Now in some ways those becoming infected now are luckier than those who got the virus in March or May, we know a lot more now about how to effectively treat those affected, there has been progress. Sadly though there are still a lot of unknowns.

Hospitals in some areas are starting to feel the crunch, about 1.5% of Israel's medical staff are in bidud. Continuing to just let the virus rip without any kind of locking down or increased restrictions will overwhelm the health system, if not due to resources then in terms of staffing. Israel has one of the lowest ratios of medical staff to population in the developed world and a very high percentage of Israel's doctors are over 50.

That doesn't just mean an issue with covid cases filling up hospitals, that means potential staff shortages causing routine treatments and screenings to be suspended, elective procedures, possibly even emergency treatments cancelled because the system will be beyond capacity if more drastic action is not taken to reign in the infection rate.

Do we want to keep the schools open if and when we get there? Do you want your kids in school under those conditions? Will teachers want to keep coming in to work under those conditions?

Because while it is only July now there is the possibility that this crisis will not be resolved by September and now is the time to start trying to figure out how we are going to adapt, even if right now the state doesn't seem to quite know what to do.

I don't say this to scaremonger but simply because this is where the data is leading and people do need to reconsider how this development may affect childcare, schools, camp and summer plans, and for that matter their work at home options and shopping routines.

Thinking in practical terms are there ways you can help to further shelter older or more vulnerable family, friends, neighbours? Can you further minimise exposure and going out? Can you find creative alternatives to busier places you ordinarily visit? Do you have contingencies for your workplace going into bidud? Can you try out more online shopping, banking and other services that you don't normally use? Are you up to date with prescriptions? Can you afford another laptop, improve the quality of your home internet?

DH and I have been going over the data and discussing at length, we are in two minds whether to say anything to anyone about this, but we both feel that it would be grossly unethical to keep watching what feels like an accelerating snowball without saying anything.

We are by no means experts but we are I think to reasonably intelligent people with backgrounds in understanding statistics, analysis and research, and we have been tracking the facts and figures as they develop and so far unfortunately have pretty much been right about how things have played out.

I really really hope we are off the mark now and the govt or local scientists will pull a rabbit out of a hat any day now and say "Hallelujah!" but I feel that it is only prudent to prepare for a less rosy situation.

And now I'm going back to hide on the porch and paint mandalas with my kids.