Watching the horrific war unleashed on Ukraine one can only pray that peace will be restored soon And yet following the reports of a potential ceasefire deal which may or may not be coming to fruition I can't help but be concerned where it leads and what it might mean for the long term stability and safety of Ukraine and its citizens.
Ukraine is desperate to end the suffering of its people and the destruction of its cities, but this deal offers Putin so much of what he wanted, it feels like giving him a huge reward for starting a war, a prize which down the road will only lead to more bloody Putin aggression against his neighbours. Maybe Ukraine has no choice right now, but what a capitulation to Putin's demands.
Bottom line, it sounds as though this is shaping up to be an imbalanced deal in which Ukraine is forced to make concrete territorial compromises, ceding territories to Russia such as Crimea, Donbass and probably more regions recently conquered by Russian forces, as well as giving up its aspirations to affiliate with Western organisations such as NATO and the EU, in exchange for which Ukraine receives airy "security guarantees" and vague promises from both Russia and NATO members like the US and UK guaranteeing its independence.
Ukraine already went this route in 1994 when the Clinton brokered Budapest Memorandum gave Ukraine guarantees from Russia, the US, and UK, with support from France and China, of its 'sovereignty and territorial integrity" in exchange for Ukraine relinquishing all of its nuclear arsenal to Russia. No, they didn't promise to militarily protect Ukraine's right to sovereignty, but they did pledge to intervene in its internal affairs or violate its sovereignty.
And look how well that worked out.
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